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The Big Four Economic Indicators:

September 28, 2012

 

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. 

-Doug Short, Advisor Pespectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:

 

  • Industrial Production
  • Real Income
    (excluding transfer payments)
  • Employment
  • Real Retail Sales

 

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